Civitas (5/14-17, registered voters):
Kay Hagan (D): 43
Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 45
Undecided: 12
(MoE: ±3.7)
First Rasmussen, then Public Policy Polling, then SurveyUSA, and now Civitas. With four consecutive polls showing the North Carolina Senate race to be neck-and-neck, the Swing State Project is moving its rating of this race from Likely Republican to Leans Republican.
Update: I forgot to mention the Research 2000 poll from late April that showed Hagan within 7 points of Dole.
Schumer was right to recruit Hagan.
I thought it might heat up, but I didn’t think it would so soon.
45; that is low for any incumbent especially a well-known incumbent like dole; that 45 represents close to her high water mark; she simply won’t have much room to build on, where as hagan is still getting herself known throughout the state, giving here plenty of room for improvement
Hagan gets 65% of registered Dems. I’d say that leaves some room to grow.
http://www.surveyusa.com/index…
This is amazing. Also, when Edwards is added on as Obama’s VP the lead jumps to the 12-18 point range.
But I didn’t want to post a diary to ask…
I can’t find the latest candidate filing summary (i.e. number of races filled/open on each side). Could someone point me to it?
Also, seems like that info could linked to under “Resources” or just included in the House rankings page.
Tweetie just reported that Libertarians WILL be on the ballot in NC. 70,000 petition signatures are needed. Libs produced nearly 73,000. I’ve no idea if the signatures have been validated. I’m only reporting what Tw claimed.
If true, this is terrific news as it could suck a few thousand votes from Rethuglicans at least at the presidential level.
6/21 Forum with the NC Bar Assn. Dole must realize she is in trouble if she has agreed to this joint appearance with Hagan:
http://www.newsobserver.com/po…
in the NC Senate,a nd has been for 3 of her 5 terms.
http://www.kayhagan.com/about/…
But here we are, in a deadlock, 6 months before the election.
I would skew all the swing and blue state senate races two or three points more for the blue team (like MN, OR, and ME).
Even more stunning is the KS race between Roberts and Slattery.
I’d like to see a poll on Andrew Rice in Oklahoma. I’ll bet he’s behind by less than ten.
I really have to smile here. I don’t know how many times I’ve posted that Kaye is a great candidate for NC and that Governor Hunt has been trying for years to get her to run for Senate, yet people keep acting surprised that she’s doing well. She’s a proven campaigner, a great State Senator, a super fit for the state, and her experience working on two of her uncle’s campaigns has really helped her political IQ. The DSCC is really getting behind her, and I think she has a great chance to win and did so long before this recent set of polls.
I keep reading how red NC is, yet our state politics are dominated by Democrats. OK, so maybe they’re not Massachusetts Democrats, but almost all statewide offices are held by Dems, we have solid majorities in both houses of the state legislature, 7 of our 13 US House members are Dems, one of our two US Senate seats flips every election, and while Helms and Dole have held the other seat for a long time, neither gets above the low 50s. Of course, we never vote for Dems for President, but it’s never made sense to me that votes on that one office should label the entire state as “Red”, as if none of the other offices matter.
The big mistake Dole has made is in constituent service. I’ve talked to so many people, including some staunch Democrats, who have personal stories of how much Helms’s office helped them when they needed it. Dole, on the other hand, has provided no real service at all. I know people who hated Helms on the issues, but still voted for him because they believed he really cared for the people here. Those same folks are not going to vote for Dole.